Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of cordia africana (lam.) in northern ethiopia

The recognized significant changes of global climate in recent years has had considerable spatio-temporal impacts on several terrestrial habitats. The objective of this study was to assess climate change impacts on the geographic distribution of Cordia africana (C. africana) species and identify new potential habitats for its cultivation and conservation up to 2070. MaxEnt species distribution model was used to predict the current and future distribution of this species. A collective of three General Circulation Models (‘MIROC5’, ‘CCSM4’ and ‘HadGEM2-ES’) under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the 5th IPCC report were used for predicting the future species distribution. The model predicted that approximately 14 – 16% of the total area suitable for the species to grow will be lost under RCP4.5 scenario by 2070. Almost 16 – 17% of the total area suitable for the species will be lost under RCP8.5 scenario by 2070. New suitable areas for the cultivation and conservation of the species will cover approximately 12% and 11 – 14.5% of the total area by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The conservation strategies for C. africana should be of priority and implemented in the species’ low impact areas from climate change and new potential areas for the species.